The meat chain, “on fire and angry” – Commerce and Justice

The industry is facing serious problems in production margins, which are aggravated by drought and rising costs. The industry is also suffering from tight profitability, the threat of productive change due to the arrival of forced fragmentation, and – in addition – the resounding fall in international prices.

Economic indicators describing the state of the Argentine beef production chain, including farm offer for business and production and industry marginshad an expert advisor of the activity confirm that: “The industry is on fire, heating up” and grappling with uncertainties for the near futurewill undoubtedly have an impact on the future of such precision traditional Argentinean production.

The word belongs to the consultant. Fernando Gilof the agroideaslast exhibitor Livestock Chat called by national refrigeratorswhile reviewing his vision of the situation and the perspectives of the meat chain.

The event held last Thursday at the call of the Federation fifra and under the auspices Vaccine Meat Promotion Institute (IPCVA), tried to review the current situation for To predict the scenario that companies in the sector will face until 2023.

The speech included Cordovan’s inauguration. daniel urciavice-president of the federation of refrigerators, emphasizing that there are criteria for meat consumption, production and other actors await the summons To express their position from the Ministry of Agriculture against forced hash (Ordered by the government and then extended until next January), “Only ABC consortium refrigerators were consulted about their application, not the rest of the chain.”

In this context, governments some provinces stated that they questioned the initiative because macroeconomic or trade conditions are not given to initiate such an initiative.

Dante Cerinonew head Córdoba Cold Storage and Meat Industries Association (AFIC), intervened to indicate “Chopping will affect the consumer and primary production as it will increase concentration. less demand in companies” and “a job cannot be changed based on a solution”.

That was the moment of counselor Fernando Gilfirst to list climate problems severe drought affecting the countryside and of course livestock frosts that leave growers and replanters without grass and this led to greater confinement in the mangers. “This link is losing a lot of money because of the rising costs and the lack of response from consumption,” Gil said. In the last 12 months, corn has increased by over 90%, slaughter cattle by 57% and winter cattle by 40%.

On the other hand, he pointed out that increases were recorded in meat according to INDEC reports. well below inflationHe said that while the average price increase of 6.8% every month since at least April, the increase in October did not exceed 3%.

this The “perfect storm” the industry is experiencing The export scenario is completed with: “The fall in international prices revealing a lack of sectoral competitiveness Consequences of economic measures taken by the current Government and the previous Government ».

Gil stated that the prices paid by the European Union for the Hilton quota decreased from $ 17 thousand to $ 9 thousand, while China decreased from $ 6,000 to $ 4 thousand 500. When the exchange rate delay and the difference with the real dollar are taken into account, this decrease is more pronounced, the chain does not buy these dollars, but much less,” he said.

perspectives

Agroideas analyst, a Increase in slaughter cattle prices in Decemberalthough it is the result of a combination of a smaller size and a lower bid feedlots are emptied and more demand for holidays.

He believes he can be an analyst A higher increase in February-MarchIt is the period when the emptying of pens is more evident and people who can consume and have the capacity to consume begin to return to big city centers from their holidays.

In order for the livestock business to be profitable, he added: prices should register a significant recomposition and present value Must be 100 pesos higher than what is currently available For farm sold in Mercado de Cañuelas (Buenos Aires) and not exceeding 330 pesos per live kilo.

Regarding 2023, he thought: calf harvest likely to be expected Considering that the precipitation will continue below the historical average especially in the summer months, the disaster scenario experienced by the activity is completed. This calf offer, low availability of pasture for cultivation and corn for fattening, he explained, because most were planted late, “so that the price of grain could be more confirmed.”

As a result, he concluded that it would be difficult to close the pubs and therefore in 2023 (and especially in the first half of the year) there would be fewer offers for the taskThis should also encourage a recomposition of values, although it also depends on how much the solvency for domestic consumption will continue to suffer in the face of rising inflation.

Of course, in the middle of that era, history next January 15, The deadline for the extension determined by the Ministry of Agriculture for the validity of the decision numbered 2/21, Mandatory joinery and end of work with media res.

perspectives
Agroideas analyst, a Increase in slaughter cattle prices in Decemberalthough it is the result of a combination of a smaller size and a lower bid feedlots are emptied and more demand for holidays.
He believes he can be an analyst A higher increase in February – MarchIt is the period when the emptying of pens is more evident and people who can consume and have the capacity to consume begin to return to big city centers from their holidays.
In order for the livestock business to be profitable, he added: prices should register a significant recomposition and present value Must be 100 pesos higher than what is currently available for farm sold in the Mercado de Cañuelas not exceeding 330 pesos per live kilo.
Regarding 2023, he thought: calf harvest likely to be expected Considering that the precipitation will continue below the historical average especially in the summer months, the disaster scenario experienced by the activity is completed. This calf offer, low availability of pasture for cultivation and corn for fattening, he explained, because most were planted late, “so that the price of grain could be more confirmed.”
As a result, he concluded that it would be difficult to close the pubs and therefore in 2023 (and especially in the first half of the year) there would be fewer offers for the taskThis should also encourage a recomposition of values, although it also depends on how much the solvency for domestic consumption will continue to suffer in the face of rising inflation.
Of course, in the middle of that era, history next January 15, The deadline for the extension determined by the Ministry of Agriculture for the validity of the decision numbered 2/21, Mandatory joinery and end of work with media res.